Lenders Begin to Look Beyond FICO

A few years ago, Fair Isaac reported that the average FICO credit score in the U.S. was 723 out of a possible 850. The higher the score, the greater the likelihood that the borrower would repay a loan.

At least that was what Fair Isaac pitched to lenders.

Thus spawned several years of streamlined loans – loans that were predicated solely on credit score. "Stated" loans allowed people with good credit scores to put down any income figure on a loan application and get approved. The sheer number of applications in an overheated market where an hour could mean a $50,000 difference in selling price necessitated glossing over details that were mandatory – or at least a consideration – in pre-FICO days. (I know you're thinking, what, there was a time when credit scores didn't exist? Credit scores weren't developed until the late 50s.)

According to an article in Time magazine,

A few years ago, Fair Isaac produced a chart predicting the odds that a borrower with a certain credit score would default on a mortgage. For example, it predicted that a loan to a borrower with a 680 score had a 1 in 144, or 0.7%, chance of becoming delinquent over the life of the loan; a person with a 700 FICO score would have a 1 in 288 chance, or just 0.3%.

Unfortunately, those predictions proved too optimistic. According to mortgage-data tracker First American Loan Performance, banks have already foreclosed on or are in the process of foreclosing on 1.5% of the mortgages originated in the last three months of 2007 to individuals with credit scores between 660 and 720. And those mortgages have been around for only a year. Over 30 years, the delinquency rate on those home loans is likely to be much higher.

The rise in defaults among "good credit" borrowers is beginning to force lenders to revert back to more traditional ways of predicting risk. Consumer advocates who have long opined that a three-digit credit score managed by for-profit entities is an inaccurate measure of creditworthiness should be pleased at this trend, which takes a number of variables (such as phone bill payment records) into account - especially helpful for those borrowers with thin or non-existent credit histories.

What is my REAL credit score?

Dear Credit Mama,

I've been working hard to pay all of my bills on time and have almost paid off my credit cards. I want to see if my efforts have made my credit score go up. I've looked into buying my credit score online, but it's confusing because different companies have different ranges for what your credit score could be – some have scores that go to 850, some go to 990. What's the deal? And which one should I believe?

--Angie, St. Louis, MO



Dear Angie,

Very astute of you to notice this! You are right – not all credit scores are the same.

The "FICO" score was invented by Minneapolis-based Fair Isaac Corp. in 1988 as an attempt to quantify the odds that borrowers will repay loans on time. The company’s name is derived from those of Bill Fair and Earl Isaac, an engineer and a mathematician, who created the credit scoring concept and founded Fair Isaac in the 1950s.

FICO scores range from 300-850. FICO calculates your score using the following factors:

• 35% payment history
• 30% amount owed
• 10% tpes of credit in use
• 15% length of credit history
• 10% new credit

"Vantage" scores, dubbed "FAKO" scores, were developed by the three credit bureaus and introduced in 2006 to compete with FICO scores. Because they do not have the actual FICO formula (a secret as closely guarded as Coca Cola's recipe), they are only approximations of the FICO score.

Vantage credit scores range from 501-990. Each 100-point interval corresponds to a letter grade, in ascending order. A score of 501 to 600, for example, would translate into a grade of "F", while someone with a score greater than 900 would receive an "A." Vantage calculates your score using the following factors:

• 32% payment history
• 23% utilization of available credit
• 15% credit balances
• 13% length and depth of credit history
• 10% recently opened credit accounts
• 7% available credit

FICO Vs. FAKO

Consumers usually buy their credit scores from the credit bureaus – the VantageScore. However, Fair Isaac states that most lenders (90% of the 100 largest banks) use the FICO score. (To complicate matters, some lenders create their own variation on a FICO score, adding in their own criteria.) Your "FAKO" scores can differ from your FICO scores by as much as 50 points.

More than two-thirds of all consumers qualify for a grade of "C" or higher. FICO scores, by contrast, range from 300 to 850, with 85 percent of Americans coming in at higher than 600. If you found a score of higher than 850 then you are "buying" one of the other scores - not the FICO score that lenders use.

Fair Isaac has filed a federal antitrust lawsuit against the nation's three credit bureaus, alleging they are "misleading and confusing consumers" when selling their own version of the credit score. They contend that since Equifax, Experian and TransUnion own the consumer data it uses to create the FICO scores, they could "unfairly manipulate the credit score price, sales and distribution process" to promote VantageScore.

The bureaus claim that the new scoring model increases competition, giving more choices to credit grantors and consumers.

Having more scoring options is good for lenders, but not necessarily good for consumers. With multiple scoring models, the odds increase that a lender can find a score to use to declare you a subprime candidate and increase your rates.

If you are trying to qualify for a mortgage or other major loan, you will want to access the real FICO, not the FAKO. Our friends at mycreditroadmap.com can link to you a FICO credit reporting product that will give you reports and scores for each of the three national credit bureaus.

So What IS the Average Credit Score, Really?

I was reading an article today posted by BusinessWeek called "Buying a Franchise with Bad Credit." One of the first things that struck me was the reference to average credit scores. A nonprofit contractor for the SBA microloan program says,

"Usually they have what I'd call an average credit score—in the mid 500s or 600s—but not a high credit score."

But hold on a minute! The credit bureaus say that the average credit score in the U.S. is 692. (In case you didn't know, FICO scores range from 300-850, although other credit bureaus use different scales.) In fact, Fair Isaac says on their Web site (myfico.com):

"About 40% of credit card holders carry a balance of less than $1,000. About 15% are far less conservative in their use of credit cards and have total card balances in excess of $10,000. When we look at the total of all credit obligations combined (except mortgage loans), 48% of consumers carry less than $5,000 of debt. This includes all credit cards, lines of credit, and loans-everything but mortgages. Nearly 37% carry more than $10,000 of non-mortgage-related debt as reported to the credit bureaus. " They report that 58% of consumers have a credit score of 700 or more.

Yet the data from Federal Reserve says something very different:

"The average household has $11,000 to $12,000 in credit card debt... Those figures are diluted by those who don't hold any debt. Households that carry debt from month to month carry close to $17,000 of unsecured debt on average. One out of every five households is either behind on payments or over the limit on at least one account."

To make matters worse, not only is the rate of foreclosures at an all-time high, but it is projected that 10% of home owners (approximately 8.8 million people) will have negative equity by month's end.

Hmm. According to the bureaus, 30% of your score is determined by your debt ratio: how much money you owe, divided by the amount of available credit you have. Thirty-five percent of your score is based on payment history. In total, that's 65% of your score - and the data shows that the majority of American households are not doing so well in these two areas.

Now factor in the sneaky credit industry tricks -- universal default (where credit card issuers can raise your interest rates should your credit falter - even if you have never made a late payment), interest rate increases for no reason, not reporting your true credit limit on cards, "chasing balances" (where credit card companies reduce your credit limit as you pay down the card) -- and it's clear that the average consumer's credit score is being attacked from so many angles that an "average" credit score of nearly 700 is improbable.

Ask any residential mortgage broker or loan officer if their average applicant's credit score is 692. Just be prepared for the snickers or guffaws.

My business partner was speaking with a mother of three the other day. As she was talking about her credit, her demeanor completely changed - her shoulders slumped forward, head hung low, voice full of apology. She truly believed that she "deserved" to pay higher interest rates because of her "poor credit." Yet if she knew that the majority of people had credit scores in the same range as hers, would she be so accepting?